Editor's note: we only run a line on the marquee game, and only when it comes from a real sportsbook. The rest of the slate runs without picks until our model ships. Every game below links to its tile at watch.uristocrat.com.
Baseball comes back tonight and it comes back small. One game. The Mets and Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, 7 ET on ESPN, and nothing else on the board until 15 games land tomorrow. The WNBA takes the rest of the night with two, including a rematch of a game that needed four overtimes.
Marquee: Mets at Phillies, second-half opener (7:00 PM ET, ESPN)
The All-Star Game was at Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday. Two days later the Phillies are back in the same building to restart the season, and MLB gave them the whole night to themselves. The standings are the story, and they cut both ways. Philadelphia is 54-43 and two games behind Atlanta in the NL East, so this is a race, not a coronation. New York is 40-57 and sits last in the same division, 16 games out. That is not a slump, it's a collapse, and these two are supposed to be rivals. Aaron Nola (3-6, 5.75) goes for the Phillies, and he is the one thing keeping this from feeling like a formality, because he has been bad this year. Christian Scott (2-1, 3.17) goes for the Mets in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, and he has been the best thing they have. Vegas noticed the gap between those two lines: Philadelphia opened -147 and has been bet down to -131.
Vegas line: Phillies -131, Mets +109, total 9.5 (under -111), run line Phillies -1.5 (+149). Odds from DraftKings via ESPN, as of publish.
Also tonight
- Portland Fire at Washington Mystics (7:00 PM ET, NBA TV). These two played 124-123 in four overtimes less than three weeks ago, matching the longest game in WNBA history. Washington won it and sits 12-10. Portland is 10-14 and has dropped five of its last seven. The case for this one is simple: the last one refused to end.
- New York Liberty at Dallas Wings (9:00 PM ET, Prime Video). Dallas is 16-8, has won five in a row, and is 2-0 against New York this season. Paige Bueckers is averaging 20.7 points on 51.6% shooting in year two, better than her rookie season. The Liberty are 13-11 and have already lost this matchup twice. This is the better basketball game.
The World Cup is dark today. The semifinals finished Wednesday, England and France play for third on Saturday, and Argentina and Spain meet Sunday for the trophy. So tonight is quiet by design: one baseball game with the sport's undivided attention, and two WNBA games that matter more than a July record suggests. Tomorrow the board fills back up with 15 more.
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