Mark Zuckerberg has directed Meta to build a standalone prediction market app codenamed Arena, according to a New York Times report published June 23. The app would let users forecast outcomes across politics, sports, entertainment, and world affairs — putting Meta's 3.56 billion daily active users on a collision course with Polymarket and Kalshi.
Points first, money later
Arena is expected to launch with a video game-style points system rather than real-money wagering. Users earn points for accurate predictions — think leaderboard competition, not trading volume. Meta has not ruled out adding real money later, but the points-first approach lets the company build the product and grow the user base without immediately navigating the regulatory maze that governs financial prediction markets.
The competitive landscape
The timing is not subtle. Polymarket and Kalshi have seen combined monthly trading volume quadruple from under $5 billion to $24 billion between September 2025 and April 2026. Polymarket's breakout during the 2024 presidential election proved that prediction markets could generate mainstream attention; Kalshi secured federal regulatory approval as a designated contract market. X previously partnered with Polymarket to surface predictions on its platform.
Arena would be a separate app from Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger — though Meta's existing platforms would likely serve as the distribution pipeline. The scale advantage is obvious: no prediction market startup has ever had access to a built-in audience of that size.
The regulatory window
The CFTC proposed new rules on June 10 that would ban contracts tied to war, assassinations, and terrorism while potentially legalizing wagers on sporting events — a shift that could expand the addressable market for any platform with ambitions beyond political forecasting. The Trump administration has signaled broad support for the prediction market industry, giving Meta a friendlier regulatory environment than it might have expected a year ago.
Sources: TechCrunch, Gizmodo, CoinDesk
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